How Work Will Change When Most of Us Live to 100
1 Today in the United States there are 72,000 centenarians（百岁老人） .Worldwide,
Probably 450,000. If current trends continue, then by 2050 there will be more than a
million in the US alone. According to the work of Professor James Vaupel and his
co-researchers, 50% of babies bom in the US in 2007 have a life expectancy of 104 or
more. Broadly the same holds for the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Canada, and for
Japan 50% of 2007 babies can expect to live to 107.
2 Understandably, there are concerns about what this means for public finances given the associated health and pension challenges. These challenges are real, and society urgently needs to address them. But it is also important to look at the wider picture of what happens when so many people live for 100 years. It is a mistake to simply equate longevity (长寿) with issues of old age. Longer lives have implications for all of life, not just the end of it.
3 Our view is that if many people are living for longer, and are healthier fbr longer, then
this will result in an inevitable redesign of work and life. When people live longer,
they are not only older for longer, but also younger for longer. There is some truth in
the saying that "70 is the new 60" or "40 the new 30.“ If you age more slowly over a
longer time period, then you are in some sense younger fbr longer.
4 But the changes go further than that. Take, for instance, the age at which people make commitments such as buying a house, getting married, having children, or starting a career. These are all fundamental commitments that are now occurring later in life. In 1962, 50% of Americans were married by age 21. By 2014, that milestone(里程碑)had shifted to age 29.
5 While there are numerous factors behind these shifts, one factor is surely a growing
realization for the young that they are going to live longer. Options are more valuable
the longer they can be held. So if you believe you will live longer, then options
become more valuable, and early commitment becomes less attractive. The result is
that the commitments that previously characterized the beginning of adulthood are
now being delayed, and new patterns of behavior and a new stage of life are emerging
for those in their twenties.
6 Longevity also pushes back the age of retirement, and not only for financial reasons. Yes, unless people are prepared to save a lot more, our calculations suggest that if you are now in your mid-40s, then you are likely to work until your early 70s; and if you are in your early 20s, there is a real chance you will need to work until your late 70s or possibly even into your 80s. But even if people are able to economically support a retirement at 65, over thirty years of potential inactivity is harmful to cognitive(认知的) and emotional vitality. Many people may simply not want to do it.
7 And yet that does not mean that simply extending our careers is appealing. Just
lengthening that second stage of full-time work may secure the financial assets needed
for a 100-year life, but such persistent work will inevitably exhaust precious intangible
assets such as productive skills, vitality, happiness, and friendship.
8 The same is true for education. It is impossible that a single shot of education,
administered in childhood and early adulthood, will be able to support a sustained,
60-year career. If you factor in the projected rates of technological change, either your
skills will become unnecessary, or your industry outdated. That means that everyone will,
at some point in their life, have to make a number of major reinvestments in their skills.
9 It seems likely, then, that the traditional three-stage life will evolve into multiple stages
containing two, three, or even more different careers. Each of these stages could
potentially be different. In one the focus could be on building financial success and
personal achievement, in another on creating a better work/life balance, still another on
exploring and understanding options more fully, or becoming an independent producer,
yet another on making a social contribution. These stages will span sectors, take people
to different cities, and provide a foundation for building a wide variety of skills.
10 Transitions between stages could be marked with sabbaticals (休假) as people find time rest and recharge their health, re-invest in their relationships, or improve their skills. At times, these breaks and transitions will be self-determined, at others they will be forced as existing roles, firms, or industries cease to exist.
11 A multi-stage life will have profound changes not just in how you manage your career,
but also in your approach to life. An increasingly important skill will be your ability to
deal with change and even welcome it. A three-stage life has few transitions, while a
multi-stage life has many. That is why being self-aware, investing in broader networks
of friends, and being open to new ideas will become even more crucial skills.
12 These multi-stage lives will create extraordinary variety across groups of people
simply because there are so many ways of sequencing the stages. More stages mean
more possible sequences.
13 With this variety will come the end of the close association of age and stage. I n a
three-stage life, people leave university at the same time and the same age, they tend to
start their careers and family at the same age, they proceed through middle
management all roughly the same time, and then move into retirement within a few
years of each other. In a multi-stage life, you could be an undergraduate at 20, 40, or
60; a manager at 30, 50, or 70; and become an independent producer at any age.
14 Current life structures, career paths, educational choices, and social norms are out of
tune with the emerging reality of longer lifespans. The three-stage life of full-time
education, followed by continuous work, and then complete retirement may have
worked for our parents or even grandparents, but it is not relevant today. We believe
that to focus on longevity as primarily an issue of aging is to miss its full implications.
Longevity is not necessarily about being older for longer. It is about living longer,
being older later, and being younger longer.
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An extended lifespan in the future will allow people to have more careers than now.
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Just extending one's career may have both positive and negative effects.
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Nowadays, many Americans have on average delayed their marriage by some eight
years
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Because of their longer lifespan, young people today no longer follow the pattern of
life of their parents or grandparents.
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More people will be expected to live over 100 by the mid-21st century.
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A longer life will cause radical changes in people's approach to life.
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Fast technological change makes it necessary for one to constantly upgrade their skills.
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Many people may not want to retire early because it would do harm to their mental
and emotional well-being.
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The close link between age and stage may cease to exist in a multi-stage life.
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People living a longer and healthier life will have to rearrange their work and life.
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